Democrats now lead governor races in four states President Trump carried twice, according to New York Times/Siena polling released one month before Election Day.
Story Snapshot
- New York Times/Siena polls show Democrats ahead in Texas, Iowa, Ohio and Alaska governor races.
- A Republican candidate still holds a lead in Kansas, the same polling found.
- Texas Gov. Greg Abbott now trails Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa, a sharp swing from June.
- Republicans currently hold 26 governorships nationwide and Democrats hold 24, with 36 seats up this year.
Poll Shows Democrats Gaining Ground in GOP Strongholds
New York Times/Siena polling released October 4 found Democrats leading or within striking distance in four governor races in states President Trump carried in past elections. The paper reported Democrats are “within reach of flipping four Republican-held governorships,” pointing to “a wide lead in Iowa” and “an expanding advantage in Ohio.” The survey ties the shift to voter anger over the economy and dissatisfaction with Trump.
Siena Research Institute’s published numbers back up the headline. In Iowa, Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn 52% to 41%. In Alaska, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins sits at 40% in a crowded field against three Republicans splitting the rest of the vote. Ohio shows a tighter single-digit race, but the Democratic candidate holds the edge there too, according to the same polling data.
Texas Race Tightens as Abbott Trails Challenger
The sharpest shift shows up in Texas. Governor Greg Abbott led Democrat Gina Hinojosa by double digits in June polling. He now trails her narrowly, according to the latest Times/Siena survey, marking one of the biggest swings tracked anywhere in the country this cycle. Kansas remains the one red state where a Republican candidate still holds a clear lead in the governor’s race.
Governors’ Races Could Shape Who Controls Congress
These contests carry weight beyond state capitals. Republicans currently hold 26 governorships and Democrats hold 24, meaning Democrats would need to defend every seat they already have and flip several more to reach a majority for the first time since before the 2010 midterms. Of the 36 governor races on this year’s ballot, most sit in states that lean one party or the other, making the handful of competitive races decisive.
Nonpartisan election trackers have already adjusted their ratings. The Cook Political Report shifted five gubernatorial contests on a single Friday in July, moving four toward Democrats, including reclassifying Ohio from “Lean Republican” to a toss-up and Arizona from toss-up to “Lean Democratic”. Sabato’s Crystal Ball now favors Democrats in 16 of the races it tracks against 18 for Republicans, with Alaska and Georgia still unresolved.
Analysts Say Local Factors Still Matter
Researchers at Brookings caution against reading these numbers as one single national wave. Governor races often hinge on local issues, candidate quality, and state-specific turnout patterns rather than a uniform swing tied to the president. Past cycles support that caution. Republicans netted six governorships in the 2010 red wave even as some individual races bucked the overall trend, and Democrats later clawed back similar ground in 2018.
Voters across the political spectrum have voiced frustration this cycle, from concerns about the economy to worries about political extremism, according to the same Times/Siena reporting. Whether that frustration translates into actual flipped governor’s mansions will become clear in November, but for now the polling shows a competitive map in states both parties once considered settled.
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