(TargetDailyNews.com) – As the presidential race gets closer, anything can happen from upsets to reversals of candidate fortunes. With Florida Governor Ron DeSantis dropping out of the Republican primary on January 21st, that leaves only Donald Trump and Nikki Haley vying for the GOP nomination.
But though Trump recently won a record-breaking 51 percent of the vote at the Iowa caucuses, a more recent poll suggests he might have a tougher time against incumbent President Joe Biden. Polls from both YouGov and Ipsos showed Biden with a lead of either one or two percentage points in a hypothetical race with Trump. This is a turnaround from other recent but slightly older polls that showed Trump with an edge over the current president. A Newsweek analysis, however, still projects Trump will take the presidency.
Voters can surprise pollsters, and preferences can shift rapidly in a heated race; it’s probably not wise to put money on what may be a statistical blip. But according to a recent Ipsos survey, 40 percent of voters preferred Biden compared to 38 percent for Trump. The survey took the views of more than 3,000 registered voters and was conducted between January 3rd and 9th.
Some 10 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for a candidate other than Biden or Trump, though the question did not ask who that other candidate might be. When pollsters stirred independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. into the mix, Biden dropped to 34 percent and Trump to 33 percent. Seventeen percent of survey-takers in that scenario said they’d pull the lever for Kennedy.
With tight results within a point or two, it is important to remember that these results usually fall within a poll’s margin of error. Later polls may be able to show how DeSantis’ bowing out of the race will affect the Trump/Biden split.
YouGov’s poll showed both Biden and Trump were more popular among all hypothetical voters than what Ipsos found, and the difference in support for the two was so small—44 percent for Biden, 43 percent for Trump—that it may simply be a statistical difference and not a real one.
Ipsos maintains a constantly updated page where readers can see the latest public opinion results.
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